New Zealand's Next Top Model Fixed Price Odds

"I'm not a stripper, so I didn't go anywhere near that dirty pole."

"I'm not a stripper, so I didn't go anywhere near that dirty pole."

In honour of this week’s non-entity recap episode, featuring about 30 seconds of unseen footage and a whole lot of reiterating what the hardcore ALREADY KNOW, we’ll do a similar thing with the Power Rankings this week. Because I know what you teenagers get up to when NTM isn’t on, and I can’t let the first ever copy of New Zealand Truth Weekly I’ve ever bought go to waste.

Basically this post will attempt to emulate the recap by synthesising the first five weeks of competition into one, and extrapolating the chances of wining the big prize based on that. While the Power Rankings lean heavily on that week’s episode, with a Hollinger-esque ratio taking into account previous wins, momentum and potential upside, the fixed price odds are less results driven than that, based entirely on the remaining models’ chances of actually winning the whole thing.

1. Christobelle $3.50

Watching the recap you got a sense of just how stealthy Christobelle’s rise to favouritism has been. In the early episodes she was just another frivolous, pretty young thing, cracking jokes and cruising through. It was only with the makeover that you got a sense of how bad she wants it, and the way she turned the disappointment into a victory straight afterward pointed at the steel behind those doe eyes. DeadBall can reveal that The Truth’s screaming headline “TV CATFIGHT” uncovered little save a spoiler alert regarding the two finalists (predictable, and almost certainly conjecture). Apparently poor Christobelle’s parents are divorcing, though quite how the juxtaposition of her and the number two on this list with the word ‘catfight’ related to the piece is beyond me. I just hope all those amazing headlines regarding Vice Girls in the past had more substance behind them. In any case, the main reveal was that C-Belle’s surname is Grierson-Ryrie, which sounds appropriately posh I reckon.

Key quote: “I think it was quite mean of me to not care that Hosanna was crying. But I had more important things on my mind.”– Christobelle on Michael Hill Jeweler shoot

2. Laura $5.25

Laura’s early showings were striking only in how uninspiring she was… The Wellingtonian was obviously the girl-you’d-most-like-to-date from the start, being funny and self-aware and so on, but her nondescript dirty blonde hair and generally unguarded enthusiasm hardly screamed ‘contender’. The makeover changed things in a big way though, channelling Agnes Deyn forging a sea change in her own perception of her chances of winning, and when the words ‘Teryl-Leigh’ dripped out of her mouth in response to Sara’s “who do you think will be going home this week?” you knew she was deep in the game. She’s making her crooked teeth a blessing, and has survived a few early wobbles to emerge as the key obvious rival to Christobelle, albeit one priced significantly back. This is a Mickelson/Woods type rivalry, folks, with a similar raw talent dynamic.

Key quote: “She put this massive bumsack on me…” – Laura makes it two weeks of offending designers at KIW’s couture shoot.

3. Teryl-Leigh $6.00

“This one goes out to all the baby momma’s/ Baby momma’s mommas…” Big Boi, on Outkast’s Ms Jackson, 2001.

South Auckland’s Teryl-Leigh may not yet be a grandmother, but she’s got the surly, remonstrative demeanour of one for sure. Looking back across the season, despite three of the five rounds being wins or placings for her, she still makes her victories seem flukey, and her failures the established order. Let’s be honest: her win in the Max challenge was a rort. Lucy put it best “she won and she didn’t even have two shoes on”. They just wanted the oldest, droopiest model for their campaign, and picked her despite her homeless-chic look. The hip hop win was even worse. No offence to CMJ, who is the f***in’ man 90% of the time, but has he ever seen an R&B video? The way he chastised Ajoh for being too ‘hootchie’? “What is she squatting for? I mean you have to ask yourself those questions?” might be one of the best lines of the series (equal with his “someone’s stolen your kids!” in the wind tunnel), but Lil Jon’s Get Low has his answer. Another bullshit win for TL, and it’s really only the Michael Hill shoot that has her so high. She pulled some new shit there, plus people seem to be gravitating towards her. So for those reasons the odds are short.

Key quote: “Hosanna’s obviously an idiot. I think they’re all just little bitches. I’m the tallest one here. They can’t grow any taller.” – She actually said all that stuff. Martyrdom complex plus “bone structure” equals TV heaven.

4. Victoria $7.50

Sitting in fourth place in the odds without ever being above fifth on the Power Rankings? Call it a hunch. Based on the fact that if you’d put all 13 in a row in fron of me before the comp started and asked who I thouht would win, it might well have been Victoria. She’s the kind of girl New Zealand would want to win, right? Old enough that we don’t have to handwring about its effect on her. She’s got a real job (chef) and comes from a real town (Blenheim). Plus she is gorgeous, like classically beautiful at times. It’s been a bit more fashion-centric than I’s anticipated, and for that reason she remains something of a longshot. But the win last week was notice enough that she came to play.

Key quote: Not entirely sure that Victoria has the power of speech. Blandcore.

5. Ruby $8.00

My personal fave. Just love her piggie little nose and the undeniable feeling that she doesn’t take the show nearly so seriously as Sara would like. Plus I’ll never stop being amazed that something that pretty came out of Hastings, a town I had thought was pretty much just a wholesale market for gang prospects. She doesn’t look like a model (minus), but she is the most identifiably New Zealand-looking girl now Tiffany and Rhiannon are gone (plus). She had a ‘bad attitude’ (actually based on her muttering ‘for real’ under her breath when told she had two minutes to shoot in the snow) (minus), but now it’s gone (she hasn’t changed a bit, just tricked Sara. Some kind of Nobel Prize for Tricking needed there) (plus)… Basically there’s a lot in her favour, and a lot against her. Tough for her to win, but a dark horse, and that smile will get her through a few eliminations yet.

Key quote: “I ran a jazzercise class.” – how not to show you’re serious about the comp.

6. Rebecca-Rose $13.00

Did we ever seriously think she could be a contender? She’s got certain attributes of a model, mostly that she doesn’t look like other humans, but that didn’t work well for Frankie, and it alone won’t carry R-R to the title. She could still surprise everyone, but seems a bit too locked into couture/catwalk to be the allrounder who takes the title. She has been responsible for some of the best comedy of the series. When Olivia was sent home and the girls were all in tears, Sara pronounced from on high “sometimes it doesn’t hurt to be a nice person”. The camera zoomed in on the girls, and caught an utterly mystified expression on R-R’s face… She’s definitely the candidate most likely to revealed as having Asperger’s when the show’s done. And yes, I have learnt everything I know about that condition from Shortland St this past month.

Key quote: “I didn’t mind that Sarah didn’t have the ambition because it made me look better.”

7. Hosanna $25.00


That’s kind all you need to know. Hosanna is a pitbull for the comp, wants it more than anyone, and that has carried her here despite her being somewhere around the 60th percentile in the country for looks. That works until around now, that plus her war with TL making for fantastic drama, but the producers know eliminating Hosanna is going to be an orgy of tears and pain – we all secretly crave it – and sooner or later, we will get our fill.

Key quote: “There’s nothink I wouldn’t do to win this comptetion.” Hosanna in Ep one. Who knows what she’s done to keep herself on the show?

Highly commended: “It’s like christmas, but better! Because we have a great view!” Hosanna while holding a sixpack of vitamin water.

8. Lucy $51.00

She’s tried, really hard, and shed more tears than whole massacred villages back in Ajoh’s old country, but Lucy’s road ends next week, you can set your clock to it. She avoided elimination on the last show proper only thanks to Ajoh’s gymnastics meltdown, and has never relaxed the way you need to if you’re going to make the end game manourvres. It has been fun watching her scrimp through, with just enough fear and desperation to evade the guillotine of elimination. But the run is done, and she’s starting to irritate everyone involved with the constant breakdowns, mad eyes and huge self esteem problems. I actually worry about Lucy, can imagine her subject of some super-intense 60 Minutes segment in ten years from now, rocking gently back-and-forth in a too white room with high windows and no handle on the inside of the door, saying “and that’s where it all began…”

Key quote: “When you’ve had the same haircut fo two years…” [breaks down in tears] – Lucy when they dyed her hair brown.

– Duncan



Filed under Awards, Golf, News

2 responses to “New Zealand's Next Top Model Fixed Price Odds

  1. Hosanna’s my pick to win, Ruby second.

  2. Duncan

    Hosanna is not going to win. I’ve never been surer of anything in all my life. Would love to think that Ruby could win, but something tells me the judges have more Christobelle-centric ideas.

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